Mortgage rate forecast to the end of 2025
After the key interest rate cut in the spring, Saron mortgages became cheaper. The benchmark interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages, on the other hand, have hardly changed. Will the trend continue in the second half of 2025? Comparis provides a forecast.
12.06.2025
iStock / Daniel Werder
1. Mortgage rate forecast: what is likely to happen to mortgage rates in the second half of 2025?
Since the beginning of the year, the benchmark interest rates for ten-year fixed-rate mortgages have only risen by 0.03 percentage points – from 1.63% to 1.66%.
The refinancing costs of the banks have changed only slightly during this period: the 10-year swap rate of 0.46 percentage points is almost at the same level as at the beginning of the year (0.45 percentage points). The yield on 10-year federal bonds rose by 0.03 percentage points to 0.30% (as of June 10, 2025)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has continued the interest rate reduction cycle that began in spring 2024 and lowered the key interest rate to 0.25%. This has made Saron mortgages cheaper. At the same time, the benchmark interest rates for ten-year fixed-rate mortgages have remained stable since the beginning of the year. Dirk Renkert, Comparis financial expert, explains:
Global uncertainty has caused considerable fluctuations in the conditions for fixed-rate mortgages in recent months. However, since the sharp rise in March, benchmark interest rates have fallen once again. Nevertheless, benchmark interest rates for medium- and long-term fixed-rate mortgages could become increase again by the end of the year.
Benchmark rates for fixed-rate mortgages could rise again
Interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages have fluctuated sharply. In March, the benchmark interest rates for 10-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to over 2%. Afterwards, they fell significantly again due to fears of a recession.
According to a Comparis analysis, expectations of future interest rate cuts by the SNB are likely to have already been priced into the current benchmark rates. This could mean that interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages have reached their lowest point.
The current interest rate level
The benchmark rate for ten-year mortgages is currently 1.66%. However, the offers from the various mortgage providers differ greatly: the best rate brokered by HypoPlus, the mortgage partner of Comparis, is currently 1.24% (as of 10 June 2025).
2. Negative interest rate decision by the SNB unlikely
The SNB will decide next week on the potential further changes in the interest rate. According to Comparis real estate & finance expert Dirk Renkert, it is rather unlikely that the SNB will roll out negative interest rates in June. He believes that it is more likely that the SNB will lower the key interest rate to 0% first and consider further moves at a later date.
A return to negative interest rates would also have socio-political consequences, as other stakeholders—such as Swiss pension funds—would be severely affected. In the past, negative interest rates were often passed on to them.
3. What can people with a mortgage do?
Comparis has the following tips for people with mortgages:
Take advantage of market weaknesses
Keep an eye on the mortgage market. Take advantage of market fluctuations and time your mortgage application accordingly. Our interest rate overview will help you get a sense of the market. Further information is also available in the quarterly Comparis Mortgage Barometer.
Determine the appropriate risk strategy
If you are no longer able to pay higher interest rates, you should fixed-rate mortgage. Could you also afford significantly higher interest rates for a while, possibly several years? If so, you could take on the interest rate risks of a Saron mortgage.
Don’t accept the very first interest rate offer
Never accept the very first rate offered to you by your bank. There is usually a marked discrepancy between the interest rates advertised by lenders (benchmark interest rates) and the best negotiated rates.
The following example shows the savings potential based on a current quote from HypoPlus, the mortgage partner of Comparis, compared to the average benchmark rate:
| Benchmark rate (10 years) as of 10 June 2025 | 1.66% |
|---|---|
| Best rate negotiated by HypoPlus as of 10 June 2025 | 1.24% |
| Mortgage | CHF 750,000 |
| Rate difference per year | 0.42% |
| Saving per year | CHF 3,150 |
| Saving over the entire term | CHF 31,500 |
4. Rising financing costs due to "Basel III"
Since 1 January 2025, banks have been obliged to comply with new rules on lending within the framework of the "Basel III" reform package. The aim is to maintain financial market stability. The following points must be observed:
Banks must deposit more equity capital for each mortgage and be stricter in their credit checks.
The equity capital should be adjusted even more closely to the risk of the respective mortgage loan.
The stricter requirements tend to lead to higher financing costs for banks, which they subsequently pass on to mortgage holders. As a result, fixed-rate mortgages are likely to rise again according to Dirk Renkert, Comparis real estate & finance expert.
5. What is the Comparis mortgage rate forecast based on?
The information is based on the benchmark rates of some 30 lenders. They are updated daily and published in the mortgage rate overview.
This article was first published on 16.12.2021
