Mortgage rate forecast for the second half of 2026
Despite moderate inflation and a loose monetary policy from the Swiss National Bank, fixed-rate mortgages are unlikely to become any cheaper in the coming months, predicts Comparis mortgage expert Dirk Renkert.
16.06.2026
iStock/JaCZhou
1. Mortgage rate forecast: what is likely to happen to mortgage rates by the end of 2026?
The interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages have stabilised – but that may not stay the case. Currently, interest rates for a 10-year fixed-rate mortgage are at a level of under 2% and slightly below the rates at the beginning of the year.
However, rates are unlikely to fall very much is expected, however. Comparis finance expert Dirk Renkert provides an outlook:
The benchmark interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages are likely to remain at their current level or even rise slightly in the coming months. A marked decline only seems likely if the economy were to weaken unexpectedly sharply and the global economy were to fall into recession. If you have to extend a mortgage in the coming months, you shouldn’t be banking on significantly lower interest rates. In the current situation, there is much to suggest that the upward pressure on fixed-rate mortgages will continue in the coming months.
Current interest rate level
The benchmark rate for 10-year mortgages is currently 1.83%. However, the offers from the various mortgage providers differ greatly: The rate brokered by the Comparis mortgage service brokered best interest rate is currently 1.43% (As at: 15 June 2026).
2. The Swiss economy is more robust than those of other countries
Despite a below-average rate of economic growth there are no signs of a recession apparent. One indication of this is the consistently low unemployment rate and stable consumer sentiment.
This is different in other European countries. For example, Germany is suffering from weak industrial production, restrained consumer demand and the consequences of economic transformation.
Switzerland is currently one of the most resilient economies in Europe. Growth remains modest. At the same time, however, the typical signs of a recession are absent. With the sharp rise in energy prices and general inflation, fears of deflation have also dissipated. Therefore, there is no immediate pressure on the SNB to further ease monetary policy.
Moderate inflation in Switzerland
The situation in Switzerland is so stable, among other things, because of the consistently moderate inflation so stable. It is moving within the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2%.
In addition, due to the uncertainty in international financial markets, the value of the Swiss franc has risen. This reduces the cost of imported goods, which also counteracts global inflation.
3. Warning signals in international bond markets
The long-term interest rates remain under upward pressure worldwide. This is because investors are viewing the rising public debt of many industrialised countries with increasing criticism.
This rising debt is changing the perception of the financial markets. Yields are rising as investors are once again demanding higher risk premiums for long-term government bonds. Comparis finance expert Dirk Renkert puts it in context:
For many years, governments were able to increase their debts practically without limit, without this having a major impact on financing costs. We are now seeing a trend reversal. The markets are starting to price in long-term risks again.
4. The Middle East conflict as the most important factor of uncertainty
In the coming months, the geopolitical situation remains a major factor of uncertainty. The tensions in the Middle East in particular are being closely followed by the financial markets. If there is a further escalation, energy prices could continue to rise and thus put more pressure on world trade.
According to Comparis finance expert Dirk Renkert the Middle East conflict is currently the most important short-term risk factor for the capital markets. However, not all forecasts are negative: «In the baseline scenario, we assume that the impact on the global economy will remain limited. If, on the other hand, the situation were to worsen significantly, inflation expectations could rise again and long-term interest rates could come under additional pressure.»
5. What can people with a mortgage do?
Comparis has the following tips for people with mortgages:
Take advantage of market weaknesses
Keep an eye on the mortgage market and take advantage of the market fluctuations and time your mortgage contract. Our interest rate overview will help you get a sense of the market. Mortgage rate overview Further information is also available in the quarterly Mortgage Barometer from Comparis to help you get your bearings.
Determine the appropriate risk strategy
If you would be unable to pay higher interest rates, you should opt for fixed-rate mortgages Could you also afford significantly higher interest rates for a while, possibly several years? If so, you can take on the interest rate risks of a Saron mortgage on your own shoulders.
Don’t accept the very first interest rate offer
Never accept the very first rate offered to you by your bank. There is usually a significant difference between the interest rates advertised by lenders (benchmark rates) and the best negotiated rates. large gap.
The following example shows the saving potential based on a current quote from the Comparis mortgage service, compared to the average benchmark rate:
| Benchmark rate (10 years) as of 15 June 2025 | 1.83% |
|---|---|
| Best rate negotiated as of 15 June 2025 | 1.43% |
| Mortgage | CHF 750,000 |
| Rate difference per year | 0.4% |
| Saving per year | CHF 3,000 |
| Saving over the entire term | CHF 30,000 |
Share via:
This article was first published on 09.12.2021
