KOF forecast: healthcare costs rise to over CHF 100 billion
Healthcare costs will rise to over 100 billion francs in 2025, shown by the forecast from Economic Research Centre (KOF), financed by Comparis.
19.11.2024
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1. Healthcare spending breaks 100 billion barrier
Healthcare spending in Switzerland has already risen to 95 billion Swiss francs in 2023. According to the healthcare cost forecast of the Economic Research Centre (KOF) financed by Comparis, they will reach 103 billion in 2025 and over 106 billion francs by 2026. Expenditure per capita is expected to reach 11,600 francs by 2026, and 12,000 francs per person by 2027.
However, according to Comparis health insurance expert Felix Schneuwly, this is manageable provided that economic growth continues and the share of health expenditure remains between 11 and 12% of gross domestic product (GDP).
For 2024, KOF forecasts an increase in the growth of healthcare expenditure to 4.4%. The growth rate will then be slightly lower again at 3.7% in 2025, and will be 3.4% in 2026.
In 2027, healthcare spending will rise to over 12,000 francs per person. However, this is manageable, provided that economic growth continues and the share of healthcare spending remains between 11 and 12% of gross domestic product (GDP).
About the KOF forecast
Comparis finances the KOF healthcare expenditure forecast. Since the Federal Statistical Office only publishes health expenditure two years later, KOF’s forecast data is particularly valuable with regard to the development of health insurance premiums.
2. Cost increase due to volume growth
The study shows: the growth in healthcare costs is mainly due to the increasing demand for medical services. While development is stagnating in other sectors such as hospitality or construction, the healthcare sector is continuously expanding.
Especially long-term care is experiencing above-average growth due to the aging population. In addition, there are higher expenses in hospitals, socio-medical facilities and medical practices.
The share of healthcare workers in total employment is increasing in the long term: from 4.9% (1991) to 8.0% (2024). In the second quarter of 2024,348,022 people (in full-time equivalents, excluding homes) worked in the healthcare sector.
Healthcare’s contribution to the economy is also growing. Its share of total value added increased from 3.8% (1997) to 5.5% (2022).
This increasing importance is also reflected in consumer spending: the share for “healthcare” in the shopping basket of the National Consumer Price Index increased from 10.2% (1993) to 15.4% in 2024.
3. Health insurance premiums are on the rise again
The growth will be financed, among other things, by a greater burden on compulsory health insurance. This leads directly to higher health insurance premiums – an already known problem that is burdensome for many households.
According to Schneuwly, an increasing share of health spending in the national economy is not necessarily problematic. But the focus must be on increasing efficiency and quality and overcoming structural challenges. This is the only way to ensure that the health system remains future-proof.
This article was first published on 07.11.2023
