Mortgage rate forecast for 2026
Despite months of high uncertainty, the benchmark interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages have calmed down noticeably. Will the trend continue in the first half of 2026? Comparis gives a forecast.
09.12.2025
iStock/SiyueSteuber
1. Mortgage interest rate forecast: What mortgage interest rates are to be expected by mid-2026?
After the strong fluctuations in the first half of the year, interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages have stabilised significantly in recent months. While the benchmark interest rates for 10-year fixed-rate mortgages were still just over 2% in March, they have been in the range of 1.64% to 1.87% since the end of June. Comparis finance expert Dirk Renkert provides an outlook:
For the benchmark interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages to continue to fall noticeably, the Swiss economy would have to cool down significantly again and interest rates on the capital market would have to fall further. It does not look like that at the moment – even if the tariffs are now having an increasingly negative impact on the economic data.
The current interest rate level
The current ten-year benchmark interest rate is 1.74%. However, the offers of the various mortgage providers differ greatly: the HypoPlus, the mortgage partner of Comparis, best interest rate is currently 1.25% (as of 5 December 2025).
2. Negative interest rates remain unlikely
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will decide on 11 December on possible further interest rate steps. Even if the situation currently appears tense, according to Renkert, a rate cut into the negative range is not expected for the time being..
Although the economy is slowing down, the SNB is still providing sufficient liquidity to the economy, according to Renkert. Even if inflation were to briefly slip into negative territory in individual months, there would still be no acute need for action. Furthermore, the strong Swiss franc is dampening inflation, as it makes imported goods cheaper.
In addition, the threshold for introducing negative interest rates represents a psychological hurdle, as Swiss pension funds would be severely affected. During the negative interest rate phase from 2015 to 2022, such rates were often passed on to them.
At the same time, interventions in the foreign exchange market to weaken the Swiss franc, for example by buying US dollars, would be politically risky. The reason for this is that the SNB has already been accused by the USA of currency manipulation.
Currency manipulation refers to targeted interventions in the foreign exchange market to artificially influence exchange rates. Foreign exchange denotes foreign currencies used in international payment transactions. This can lead to advantages that would not arise under fair market conditions. Currency manipulation is therefore generally considered to be market manipulation.
3. Announcement of thecustoms tariff-reduction for Switzerland
In early August, the US government announced that it would impose 39% tariffs on imported goods from Switzerland. It was not until mid-November that the US government announced a reduction to 15%.
The high tariffs had a noticeable impact on the Swiss economy in the third quarter. The Seco estimated a decline in gross domestic product of 0.5%.
This development points to the first signs of a recession. According to the common definition, an economy is in recession if economic output shrinks for two consecutive quarters.
4. What can people with a mortgage do?
Comparis advises people with a mortgage to do the following:
Take advantage of market weaknesses
Observe the mortgage market and use the market fluctuations to find the right time to mortgage deal. You can get an overview of the market in the interest rate overview. In addition, the quarterly mortgage barometer from Comparis can help you find your way.
Determine the appropriate risk strategy
If you could no longer service higher interest rates, you should opt for fixed-rate mortgages. Could you temporarily finance significantly higher interest rates, possibly for several years? Then you can take on the interest rate risks of a Saron mortgage bear.
Don’t accept the first interest rate offer
Under no circumstances should you accept the first interest rate offered by your bank. Between the interest rates that mortgage lenders advertise (benchmark rates) and the best-negotiated rates, there is usually aa big gap.
The following example shows thesavings potentialbased on a current offer from HypoPlus, the mortgage partner of Comparis, compared to the average advertised rate:
| Benchmark interest rate (10 years) as of 5 December 2025 | 1.74% |
|---|---|
| Best interest rate negotiated by HypoPlus as of 5 December 2025 | 1.25% |
| Mortgage | CHF 750,000 |
| Interest rate difference per year | 0.49% |
| Savings per year | CHF 3,675 |
| Savings for the entire term | CHF 36,750 |
This article was first published on 09.12.2021
